Why Thomas Massie Won't Be Defeated by President Trump
Posted on June 26, 2025
As a KY-4 voter, I'm reaching out to explain why Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) is unlikely to be unseated by President Donald Trump's efforts in the 2026 primary. While our views may differ, I'll break down the facts and dynamics at play in a way that's clear and relatable, focusing on Massie's record, his district's loyalty, and the limits of Trump's influence.
1. Massie's Deep Roots in His District
Thomas Massie represents Kentucky's 4th Congressional District, a solidly conservative region in northern Kentucky. Since 2012, he's built a strong bond with voters through personal engagement and his libertarian-leaning principles—opposing big government, endless wars, and overreach. In 2024, he ran unopposed in the general election and won over 75% in the primary against two challengers. His authenticity and consistency make him a local favorite, and social media reflects this, with users noting his "insane approval ratings."
2. Massie's "Trump Antibodies"
Massie has clashed with Trump before and come out stronger. In 2020, Trump called him a "third-rate grandstander" for delaying a COVID-19 bill, yet Massie won his primary with 81% of the vote. By 2022, Trump endorsed him, showing that Massie can withstand attacks. He's criticized Trump's recent moves, like the 2025 Iran airstrikes and deficit-adding bills, earning respect for his constitutional stance. Social media users say his constituents "know what he stands for," making him resilient to Trump's current campaign, including a super PAC led by allies Chris LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio.
3. Trump's Influence Has Limits
While Trump's endorsement can sway GOP primaries, Massie's district is unique. It's home to a "liberty faction" inspired by Sen. Rand Paul, valuing policy over personality. Past challengers, like Todd McMurtry in 2020, failed to break 25% against Massie, even with MAGA rhetoric. Without a strong opponent—only a lesser-known candidate, Nicole Lee Ethington, has emerged—Trump's Kentucky MAGA super PAC may struggle. Social media notes that "Trump has tried primarying Massie before. It didn't work."
4. Massie's Fundraising and Resilience
Massie turns Trump's attacks into opportunities. After recent social media criticism, he raised $140,000 from 1,648 donors in 24 hours. His opposition to foreign wars, like the Iran strikes, even earns some cross-ideological respect. Social media praises his refusal to "sell out taxpayers," and his outsider image—working with Democrats like Rep. Ro Khanna on war powers—makes him a tough target.
5. The Bigger Picture: Trump's Priorities
As a lame-duck president, Trump is focused on his tax and immigration bill, foreign policy, and GOP unity for 2026. Targeting Massie in a safe Republican seat may not be worth the effort, especially if it risks alienating the liberty-minded base. Former official Trey Grayson warns that a Massie win could weaken Trump's grip. Massie himself doubts Trump's commitment, noting he "doesn't like to back losers."
Why This Matters
You may not share Massie's politics, but his defiance of pressure shows the power of local support and principle. His survival against Trump highlights how grassroots loyalty can outweigh party dynamics—a lesson that resonates across ideologies. Massie's deep roots, resilience, and fundraising strength make him a formidable figure, even against Trump's influence.
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